ANNUAL REPORT ‘12
ECONOMIC AND REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT
28
6_ECONOMIC AND REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT
6.1_ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
6.1.1_The macroeconomic context
At the end of 2011, projections pointed to an expan-
sion of 3.5% in the global economy in 2012, a growth
aided by the so-called emerging economies and the
main European economies, Germany and France.
But the downturn that started in the second quarter
caused the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to lower
its estimates for the growth of the global economy in
2012 to 3.2%.
This growth has varied widely across the different
economies: among the major advanced economies,
the 2.3% growth predicted for the United States
of America (USA) is very similar to the expansion
projected for Japan (associated with the recovery
following the 2011 earthquake), which contrasts with
a 0.4% contraction in the Euro Zone. The emerging
economies continue to register very strong growth
levels (5.1%), despite the slowdown registered in BRIC
(Brazil, Russia, India and China), resulting from the
international crisis.
In fact, the economic crisis that affects the Euro Zone
and the subsequent uncertainty regarding the future
have been labelled as the biggest reasons for the
downturn in the global economy. This weakening of
economic activity in 2012 reflects, in large part, a
contraction of private consumption and investment,
due to:
• Low levels of entrepreneurial confidence;
• Limited access to bank credit;
• Unemployment that reached the highest levels
since the introduction of the euro, directly affecting
the levels of disposable income and consumer
confidence.
On the other hand, the sovereign debt crisis in the Euro
Zone has already spread to the economies of Spain,
Cyprus and Italy, with the governments of Cyprus and
Spain requesting outside help for the recapitalisation of
the banking sector. During the second half of the year,
the Standard & Poors rating agency decided to lower
World Economy
3.9
3.2
Advanced Economies
1.6
1.3
USA
1.8
2.3
Euro Zone
1.4
(0.4)
Germany
3.1
0.9
France
1.7
0.2
Italy
0.4
(2.1)
Spain
0.4
(1.4)
Japan
(0.6)
2.0
United Kingdom
0.9
(0.2)
Canada
2.6
2.0
Other
3.3
1.9
Emerging Economies
6.3
5.1
Russia
4.3
3.6
China
9.3
7.8
India
7.9
4.5
Brazil
2.7
1.0
Middle East and North Africa
3.5
5.2
2011
2012E
GDP growth (%)
Source: IMF Global Outlook (January 2013)
